The very first consequences of the possibility that the referendum on Great Britain’s permanence in Europe may lead to Brexit are starting to be identified. Markets, as usual, try to anticipate the predictable effects and some elements of greater instability, especially financial ones, can already be guessed, also considering the fact that London is one of the world’s major financial centers: the sterling pound is under pressure, in general, safer investments are sought in other currencies…..there will be unforeseeable outcomes, anyway, of great and incalculable complexity especially for the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, even for the prospects to remain as it is, considering Scotland’s very clear independence desire…
With the referendum on Brexit, a new phase opens where there are many uncertainties as this referendum may also become a precedent for other European states, for example for some in the Danube area that are experiencing at present a return to strong nationalisms that may follow the same precedent that Great Britain is using to try to leave the European Union…
The British referendum is becoming a kind of plebiscite where emotions risk overwhelming reason. This mix of emotions in the same pot puts together first and foremost the excessive bureaucratization of the European Union, with factors such as immigration that, for Great Britain, have a totally peculiar origin deriving mainly from the consequences of the end of its colonial empire….
The British Manufacturers’ Association estimates that for Great Britain belonging to the European Union guarantees to their entrepreneurial world an added value of about some seventy billion pounds a year. It estimates that Brexit, on the contrary, would diminish the British economy with inestimable costs, with a growth of the unemployment level and the slowing down of economic cycles.
Brexit would inevitably produce a world shock of which is incalculable in advance the possibility of taking advantage, However, in the negotiations of last February, Great Britain obtained numerous guarantees, especially economic and financial ones, that would fail with Brexit that would break all this agreements’ web. Whatever happens, with Brexit or without, this referendum gives a turn to the European Union that, after the 23 June vote will have, no matter what, to be undoubtedly rethought and relaunched, first of all the basic problems of its legal status will all have to be resolved with a true constitution, failing which the contradictions of organisms mainly based on bureaucracies would increasingly explode.
Taken from: QN
(*the author is the President of the Italian Bank Association)